In view of the above analysis, China
steel market can usher in growth, supply and demand in the degree of
development remains to be seen. Short term, with the weather gradually gets
warmer, the demand for slow release in early April will usher in a wave within
a narrow range rebound, but the magnitude will remain limited, and in late
still need to pay close attention to the latest trends of the market
regulation. New "urbanization" policy, as China's economic growth
momentum in the next decade, yet it remains on a conceptual level, only to
various rules, the planning and the gradual introduction of the Steel City real
good, in addition to all around the island announced details of the five
countries bearish steel City, may still lead to early April to pick up market
push.
Inventory, with the continuous release of
the production capacity of China's iron and steel industry, the history of the
highest point of the steel inventories continue to be refreshed, and the stock
lowest point is gradually climbing, especially experienced for a long time or
later in the macro side early positive superimposed boosted, inventory since
2009, the most visible and lasting rise, as of March 29, according to the
statistics: Shanghai rebar inventory of 440,400 tons, an increase of 0.94%, a
decrease of 0.3% last week; 485,000 tons Guang zhou MoM decrease of 7.62%, a
decrease of 2.05% last week; 937,800 tons Beijing, a decrease of 2.4%, an
increase of 1.67 percent last week; wire stock of 66,000 tons, an increase of
0.92% from last week, an increase of 4.64%; 478,000 tons Guang zhou MoM
decrease of 11.32%, an increase of 0.56% last week; 92,500 tons Beijing, a
decrease of 7.04%, an increase of 1.12% last week.
From sheet plate， as of last
week, the domestic steel inventories finally emerged decline, but the plate
decline rate has been relatively limited. Hot rolled coil and cold rolled coils inventory reduction of
3.9 million tons and 1.5 million tons respectively over the previous week;
inventory of hot rolled coil, Wuxi market reduced by more than 3 million tons,
is to reduce the most obvious market. The Tianjin market stocks also fell more
than 10 thousand tons; Shanghai and Shenyang market increase of more than
10,000 tons. Little change over the stock market of cold rolled coils. This
shows that the downstream industry demand is not great on the plate.
The demand side, while social stock rising
demand for the release, but it falls short. Since March, the terminal site
gradually return to work, steel demand release, but still significantly limited
compared with a high level of inventory, the market destocking willingness
markedly effective urgent. Macroeconomic data from February, however, the
domestic economy is bottoming out and steady growth trend has not changed, but
is still in the running state of sub-health and stable price policy of the
central bank and the new "the country five" extremely rules
promulgatedunder, the downturn in the steel city, once again increasing the
pressure.
Overall, construction steel prices north
and south of quite different, North China needs better rebounded pileare offer,
the southern region due to continued sluggish demand continues to shock fall;
and steel plate, hot-rolled steel
market continued to fall, the market traded at its lowest ebb, cold rolled
coils stabilize, plate steel steady downward. According to market monitoring:
As of closing, 25mm two threaded average price of 3,654 yuan, more than last
week, down 32 yuan; 25mm three threaded an average price of 3,703 yuan, down 30
yuan; 6.5mm high line price of 3647 yuan, down 82 yuan ; 5.5mm hot-rolled
average price of 3,845 yuan, down 96 yuan; 1.0mm cold-rolled average price of
4,886 yuan, up 2 million; 20mm plate average price of 3,843 yuan, or 24 yuan.
